"Contango" y "Backwardation"

"Contango" y "Backwardation"

Sólo faltaba la guinda del pastel: la caída de los precios del petróleo. Nos esperan tiempo difíciles

JOSÉ TORO HARDY | EL UNIVERSAL

martes 6 de septiembre de 2011 12:00 AM

Los mercados energéticos se han visto sacudidos este año por dos severos eventos que tenían la capacidad de elevar los precios del petróleo a niveles pocas veces imaginados.

Por una parte -en plena "primavera árabe"- la guerra civil en Libia sacó del mercado 1,6 millones de barriles diarios de petróleo.

En segundo lugar, otro importante agente energético entró en crisis: la energía atómica. El terremoto y el tsunami de Japón afectaron gravemente los reactores nucleares de Fukushima reviviendo los temores de Chernobyl. Se congelan todos los proyectos nucleares y las miradas se voltearon nuevamente hacia el petróleo.

En ese momento se produce un fenómeno conocido bajo el nombre:"Contango". Es una situación en la cual los mercados se convencen de que los precios del petróleo, en el futuro cercano, van a ser mayores que los actuales. Se abre el apetito para la especulación y los precios suben.

Ahora bien, la economía mundial -que aún no se había recuperado de la grave crisis del 2008- no pudo soportar los efectos del aumento en los precios petroleros, aunados a la crisis de endeudamiento en los países europeos y el enfriamiento de la economía estadounidense. Reaparece el fantasma de la crisis. Todas las grandes economías del mundo están revisando hacia la baja sus expectativas de crecimiento y, evidentemente, a menor crecimiento económico, habrá menor consumo de petróleo.

En medio de tales circunstancias se derrumba finalmente el gobierno de Gadafi, quien al igual que otros líderes de su calaña, anda disociado de la realidad sin darse cuenta de que ahora no es más que un fugitivo odiado por su pueblo.

Hablemos un poco de Libia. En 1961 ese país producía tan sólo 20.000 barriles de petróleo. Apenas 8 años después, en 1969, había logrado la hazaña de aumentar su producción a más de 3.100.000 barriles diarios y se pensaban que en poco tiempo alcanzaría los cinco millones.

Pero en 1969 Gadafi da un golpe de Estado e instaura una dictadura que, entre otras cosas, provoca el derrumbe de la producción petrolera libia, promueve el terrorismo e interviene en otros países.

Ya para el 2000, forzado por la necesidad y aislado por el mundo, Gadafi renuncia a su trayectoria de patrocinio a terroristas y vuelve a llamar a las compañías petroleras. Hoy en día las mayores empresas americanas, europeas, chinas, rusas, japonesas, indias e indonesias venían ya operando en Libia, hasta que estalló la revuelta hace seis meses, cuando se paraliza la producción.

Gadafi ya es historia y Libia -ávida de recursos para emprender su reconstrucción- retomará su producción con todo el potencial característico de sus prolíficos yacimientos y sus enormes reservas petroleras.

Pero en una economía mundial estancada, el reingreso al mercado del petróleo libio puede traducirse en una caída importante de los precios del petróleo. Se podría entonces producir otro fenómeno, inverso al "contango", conocido como"backwardation".

PDVSA could drop Curacao refinery lease - report | Reuters

PDVSA could drop Curacao refinery lease - report

Sat, Feb 27 2010

CARACAS, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Venezuelan oil company PDVSA may withdraw from the 320,000 barrel-per-day Isla refinery it operates in Curacao to protest U.S. military operations on the Caribbean island, Ultimas Noticias newspaper reported on Saturday, citing an interview with Venezuela's oil minister.

Venezuela may order state-run PDVSA to abandon its lease of the Isla refinery because the U.S. military has been staging "provocations" on Venezuela from Curacao, Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez was quoted as saying.

PDVSA has operated the Isla refinery since 1985 under a long-term lease with the government of Curacao, a Dutch island 40 miles (65 km) north of the Venezuelan coast.

A PDVSA spokesman did not return a phone call seeking comment.

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has said the United States is plotting to invade his country, in December accused Curacao of allowing the Unites States to launch spy flights over Venezuelan territory from the island.

Dutch officials rejected the accusations, and the U.S. government has denied any plans for military incursion into Venezuela.

The Isla refinery processes mostly Venezuelan crude oil, and PDVSA has in recent years tried to negotiate a purchase of the plant from Curacao's government.

Gasoline and other refined products from Isla are shipped to the United States, South America and other fuel markets.

PDVSA has faced a series of operational and emissions issues at Isla. Refinery units were shut for months last year due to power supply problems.

A Curacao judge ruled last May that PDVSA would have to carry out investments worth $100 million at the plant to reduce sulfur and other particulate pollution, or eventually face multimillion dollar fines.

PDVSA has complained that tougher emissions standards in Curacao would cost up to $1.5 billion to comply with. (Reporting by Eyanir Chinea and Joshua Schneyer in Caracas; Editing by Xavier Briand)

© Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.

Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

PDVSA could drop Curacao refinery lease - report
| Reuters

Venezuela Projects 4.6 Million BPD of Production from Orinoco Belt - Latin American Herald Tribune

Venezuela Projects 4.6 Million BPD of Production from Orinoco Belt
PDVSA's head Rafael Ramirez said that level of output will be reached in 2020 thanks to “an accelerated development plan” that includes plans to invest a total of some $80 billion in a series of oil blocks

CARACAS – State oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA and its joint-venture partners will eventually extract 4.6 million barrels of oil per day from the Orinoco Belt, the head of PDVSA said.

Rafael Ramirez, who is also Venezuela’s energy minister, said that level of output will be reached in 2020 thanks to “an accelerated development plan” that includes plans to invest a total of some $80 billion in a series of oil blocks.

The Orinoco Belt is a 55,000-sq.-kilometer (21,235 sq.-mile) area of northeastern Venezuela that contains some 234 billion barrels of heavy and extra-heavy crude, according to the Venezuelan government’s preliminary estimates.

PDVSA and its operating partners in Orinoco currently produce some 600,000 bpd, according to official Venezuelan figures.

Ramirez noted that multi-national oil firms from China, Vietnam, Italy, Spain, the United States and Russia, among other countries, thus far have agreed to form joint ventures – with PDVSA holding at least a 60 percent stake – to develop two areas of the Orinoco Belt, Junin and Carabobo.

No blocks have yet been awarded in two other Orinoco areas, Boyaca and Ayacucho.

Four joint ventures have been formed to develop an equal number of blocks in the Junin area, with the foreign firms paying a combined $2.23 billion in “entry bonuses,” Ramirez said, adding that total production from those blocks is projected to reach 1.29 million bpd.

In the Carabobo area, “two joint ventures (have been created) to extract 800,000 bpd,” while $1.55 billion in entry bonuses have been paid and $2.05 billion in financing provided to PDVSA, Ramirez said.

He added that joint ventures will be formed in the near future to develop the Carabobo 1 and Carabobo 3 blocks and that PDVSA’s partners will pay out $1.05 billion and $500 million, respectively, for their participation.

U.S. oil major Chevron, Spain’s Repsol, Russia’s Gazprom and Lukoil, China’s CNPC, Italy’s Eni and Japan’s Mitsubishi are some of the companies that have formed joint ventures with PDVSA to develop Orinoco blocks.

The U.S. Geological Survey said earlier this year that the Orinoco Belt holds an estimated 513 billion barrels of technically recoverable heavy oil, or almost double the Venezuelan government’s current estimate.

The USGS, which said the Orinoco belt was the largest oil accumulation it had ever assessed, noted that the oil in that region is very thick and does not flow easily but added that through the use of specialized production and refining processes a wide range of petroleum products can be generated.

Part of the money invested in Orinoco will be spent on upgraders to turn the heavy oil into lighter, higher-quality crude.

Venezuela, which currently produces 3.1 million bpd, most from other areas of the country, is the world’s fifth-leading oil exporter and – despite its leftist government’s poor relations with Washington – one of the leading suppliers of crude to the United States.

Latin American Herald Tribune - Venezuela Projects 4.6 Million BPD of Production from Orinoco Belt

________________________

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Mineweb - Colombia to attract $4.5 billion for gold mining over 10 years - POLITICAL ECONOMY

Colombia to attract $4.5 billion for gold mining over 10 years

Colombia in Latin America is a new gold exploration hotspot with gold companies due to invest $400 million in 2010

Author: Diana Delgado
Posted: Monday , 19 Apr 2010

BOGOTA (REUTERS) -

Gold mining companies will invest as much as $4.5 billion over the next ten years in Colombia, attracted by rich unexplored areas and soaring prices, the head of the country's Asomineros miners group told Reuters.

Gold companies are expected to invest as much as $400 million in exploration and production this year, up from $300 million in 2009, Arturo Quiros, executive director of Asomineros said on the sidelines of a mining seminar in capital city Bogota.

Areas of exploration have opened up in Colombia under President Alvaro Uribe, who is popular for increasing security with his U.S.-backed crackdown drug-running guerrillas.

"The gold boom has continued due to high prices of the metal," Quiros said.

"Improved security conditions and relatively unexplored areas compared to other countries in Latin America explain why there is such a high interest to explore in Colombia," he said.

In all, Colombia will double its gold production over the next five years. The Andean country could produce around 3 million troy ounces of gold in 2015, twice as much as the 1.57 million troy ounces produced last year and much higher than the 501,500 troy ounces produced in 2006, Quiros said.

Colombia attracted a record $3.24 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in mining last year, compared with $2.11 billion in 2008. Of that amount, the coal sector saw the biggest inflows, Silvana Giaimo, vice minister of mines and energy, said.

Mining weighted 40 percent of the country's total foreign direct investment last year, much higher than the 19 percent in 2008.

"Foreign direct investment in mining will continue. The potential is huge," Giaimo said, noting that Canadian companies are especially interested in exploring precious metals in Colombia.

Canadian Greystar Resources (GSL.TO) plans to invest about $39.3 million this year in its Angostura gold and silver project, more than double the $19.6 million invested last year, Geoff Chater, vice president of corporate development told Reuters.

Of the total, Greystar has allocated approximately $24.5 million for infrastructure related to the Angostura project. The remaining $14.7 million will be used to complete the feasibility study and exploration drilling, Chater added.

Greystar plans to begin the construction of the mine in 2011, Chater noted.

The company plans to invest $600 million at its Angostura gold and silver mine with output beginning in the second half of 2012, Frederick Felder, Greystar's executive vice president had said.

Angostura is expected to produce an average of 2.3 million ounces of silver per year over the expected 15-year life of the mine.

Canadian Medoro Resources (MRS.V) plans to invest about $100 million in exploration, production and related activities this year at its recently acquired gold companies Frontino, Mineros Nacionales, Colombia Gold PLC and Colombia Gold.

AngloGold Ashanti's (ANGJ.J) is also expected to invest $100 million in exploration at its La Colosa mine in Tolima province, where the company announced it had found unproven reserves of 12.3 million ounces. (Reporting by Diana Delgado; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Mineweb - Colombia to attract $4.5 billion for gold mining over 10 years - POLITICAL ECONOMY

Venezuela Oil Minister Makes Rare US Visit, Defends Policies

Venezuela Oil Minister Makes Rare US Visit, Defends Policies (Copyright © 2010 Energy Intelligence Group, Inc.) International Oil Daily Monday, April 19, 2010

In a rare visit to Washington, Venezuelan oil minister Rafael Ramirez on Friday defended his country's foreign investment climate for heavy oil development and lamented that US leaders appear to be "badly informed" about Venezuela's energy policies.

Ramirez -- who is also president of state oil firm Petroleos de Venezuelas (PDV) -- said his country is open to working with any foreign investors to develop resources within the country's Orinoco heavy oil belt. He was addressing reporters at the headquarters of the Organization for American States.

The only two firms Venezuela has clashed with are Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, he added, arguing that the two US majors were unwilling to respect Venezuela's sovereignty over its hydrocarbon resources. Exxon and Conoco chose to exit heavy oil operations in Venezuela in 2006 after the government unilaterally changed their contracts to give PDV a majority stake in their projects.

"No one can exclude Venezuela from energy discussions," Ramirez said, because Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the western hemisphere. "We just ask that they respect our sovereignty, our laws and our social programs," he added.

Unable to shoulder the costs of heavy oil development alone, Venezuela made some minor concessions to oil companies to improve the fiscal terms and encourage foreign investment in the Orinoco region. But it restricted foreign firms to holding minority stakes in heavy oil projects.

Ramirez said the primary purpose of his trip to Washington was to increase awareness of Venezuela's energy policies at the "Energy and Climate Partnership for the Americas" summit last week. Many observers were surprised at Venezuela's attendance.

"We are not going to sign any agreement. We are not going to sign any partnership. We are here to inform the US about what we have been doing," Ramirez told reporters.

Venezuela is the fourth largest foreign supplier of crude to the US, but political disagreements have added a new layer of strain to US-Venezuela relations in recent years.

US politicians have blamed Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez for the discord, which arguably reached its peak when Chavez compared former President George W. Bush to a demon at an international gathering several years ago.

In a statement distributed to reporters, the Venezuelan embassy said Ramirez's attendance at the summit marks a new phase in US-Venezuela relations.

"It is his first visit to the city since 2004, when the Bush Administration, due to political reasons, began limiting communications between the energy institutions of the two countries and eventually put on hold the energy agreement that had been active between the two countries since the 1980s," the embassy said.

Ramirez drew attention to the fact that US major Chevron was part of one consortium that recently bid for acreage in the Carabobo area in the eastern part of the Orinoco region.

Aside from highlighting Chevron's involvement in Venezuela, Ramirez pointed out the efforts of PDV's US refining subsidiary Citgo, which has supplied heating oil at low cost to low-income Americans.

However, Ramirez said he thinks some Bush-era resentments toward Venezuela still linger.

US state department officials claim that they have tried to reach out to Venezuela, but that senior Venezuelan officials have not been responsive.

"In the US we still find people linked to the prior administration -- and this has created a situation where even people who are genuinely interested in working with us are badly informed," Ramirez added. "So we have been talking about how Venezuela has been diversifying our energy markets, to give authorities first-hand information from us."

Lauren O'Neil, Washington

(Copyright © 2001-2010 Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. / Energy Intelligence Group (UK) Limited)

Venezuela Oil Minister Makes Rare US Visit, Defends Policies

Venezuela oil minister seeks U.S. investment | Reuters

Venezuela oil minister seeks U.S. investment

Stocks

Exxon Mobil Corporation

XOM.N

$68.26

-0.35-0.51%

12:00am GMT+0200

ConocoPhillips

COP.N

$57.06

+0.17+0.30%

9:00pm GMT+0200

* In overture to US, Ramirez has 1st talks in DC in 6 yrs

STOCKS | GLOBAL MARKETS

* More OPEC output would end up in inventories-oilmin

* Oil market speculation causing current oil price-oilmin (adds comments from Latin America analyst)

By Timothy Gardner and Tom Doggett

WASHINGTON, April 15 (Reuters) - Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez on Thursday welcomed investment by U.S. oil companies to help develop his country's vast crude reserves, as he held energy talks in Washington for the first time in six years.

Ramirez said Venezuela is signing agreements with companies in Russia, China, Europe and Japan to develop its reserves and U.S. companies should be there as well.

"This United States cannot miss this opportunity," he told reporters on the sidelines of a two-day conference of Western Hemisphere countries meeting to address energy and climate change issues.

Relations between the United States and Venezuela have long been strained, hitting a particularly low point in 2006 when visiting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez took on then-President George W. Bush at the United Nations, calling him a "devil."

Ramirez said foreign oil companies wanting to do business in Venezuela would have to "respect" the country's energy laws and policies.

Venezuela has an estimated 99.4 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, with last year's oil production averaging 2.2 million barrels per day, down 190,000 bpd from the year before. It is the world's eighth largest oil exporter and the fourth biggest foreign oil supplier to the U.S. market.

MONEY NEEDED TO TAP "HEAVY OIL"

To boost its sagging output from traditional wells, Venezuela needs foreign investment and technology to tap the heavy oil of the Orinoco belt that requires much upgrading to turn into lighter crude.

Venezuela was criticized several years ago when it forced foreign companies to renegotiate their oil development contracts, reducing their profits. Several companies, including those U.S.-based, sold their stakes instead of following the Venezuelan government's new terms.

Leading U.S. oil companies Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and ConocoPhillips (COP.N), left Venezuela in 2007 after being pushed out of multibillion-dollar Orinoco projects.

Before Thursday, Ramirez had not held energy talks in Washington since 2004. He said Venezuelan-U.S. relations had been hurt by the Bush administration, which he said had been "hostile" to his country.

"There's no reason whatsoever for this relationship to have been halted," he said. Ramirez said he expected to have a private meeting with his U.S. counterpart, Energy Secretary Steven Chu, during the conference.

Patrick Esteruelas, Latin America analyst at Eurasia Group in New York, said he did not think Ramirez's comments about U.S. firms was significant because Venezuela has not discriminated against companies from specific countries.

"It has just demanded an equally aggressive share of the (oilfield) rent from all willing investors...very few U.S. companies have shown much willingness to go in and swallow that pill," he said.

MORE OPEC OIL NOT NEEDED

On oil market issues, Ramirez said OPEC will not increase petroleum output to bring down oil costs, even though crude prices have been hovering near 18-month highs.

Global oil inventories are "very high" because demand is low, Ramirez said. Any additional output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would end up in inventories rather than satisfying consumer demand, he said.

"As long as there is no robust increase in demand there will be no increase in supply," said Ramirez.

Oil prices settled near $86 a barrel on Thursday on strong economic data from China, a weaker dollar, and an unexpected drop in U.S. crude inventories. [O/R]

Ramirez side-stepped questions about whether oil prices above $80 to $90 per barrel would hurt global economic growth, saying that high prices were caused by market players betting on the price.

"The current price is result of speculation in oil markets," said Ramirez.

Current prices are stronger than the $70 to $80 range that OPEC ministers said last month is good for both producers and consumers.

(Reporting by Timothy Gardner and Tom Doggett; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Bob Burgdorfer)

STOCKS

GLOBAL MAR

UPDATE 3-Venezuela oil minister seeks U.S. investment
| Reuters

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Rosneft seeks Venezuelan assets in Germany-sources | Reuters

Rosneft seeks Venezuelan assets in Germany-sources

Thu, Apr 1 2010

* Rosneft eyes PDVSA's 50 pct in Ruhr Oil, a JV with BP

* Deal could be Rosneft's first big overseas acquisition

* Kremlin encourages its giant firms to expand abroad

(Adds details, quotes, background)

By Dmitry Zhdannikov

MOSCOW, April 1 (Reuters) - Russian oil major Rosneft is seeking to buy stakes in four German refineries from Venezuela as part of a Kremlin drive to encourage its firms to own assets all over the world, industry sources told Reuters.

The deal, in which Rosneft could buy Venezuelan state firm PDVSA's 50 percent stake in the Ruhr Oil refinery venture with BP , may be discussed on the fringes of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's visit to Venezuela on Friday. [ID:nLDE62U1QC]

The bid comes as Rosneft, alongside other Russian firms, is preparing to pay Venezuela $600 million in bonuses and invest a further $10-$20 billion over the next few decades to help the country develop its giant Orinoco oil province.

"It would make sense to do it as a big, package deal," one industry source told Reuters, referring to a growing number of energy and arms deals between Moscow and Caracas.

Rosneft, BP and Putin's spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, declined to comment. PDVSA was not immediately available for comment.

PDVSA says Ruhr Oil is the biggest company refining oil products in Germany, with daily capacity of 1 million barrels, of which around 250,000 bpd belong to PDVSA. Rosneft has seven plants in Russia with total capacity of around 1 million bpd.

Rosneft would not be the first Russian firm to attempt to persuade PDVSA to sell the assets, located thousands of miles from its oil production units.

Earlier this decade BP's Russian venture, TNK-BP, expressed interest in buying the assets, known as Ruhr Oil -- a 50/50 venture between BP and PDVSA, which has interests in four German refineries, Gelsenkirchen, Miro, Bayern Oil and Schwedt.

But BP, which has the first right of refusal on the assets, at that time did not welcome the idea, which would make its four Russia-connected billionaire partners in TNK-BP co-owners of assets in Germany, industry sources said at the time.

"TNK-BP had estimated the value of a 50 percent stake in Ruhr Oil at approximately $1 billion prior to the crisis," an investment banking source told Reuters.

BP and Rosneft, already partners in a number of oil exploration projects on Russia's eastern island of Sakhalin, have begun preliminary discussions about Ruhr Oil, sources said.

BP has had a bumpy experience in Russia, as it was forced to surrender management control in TNK-BP to its billionaire partners after months of corporate wars.

The venture is now trying to secure recompense from the Russian state for the likely loss of its licence for the giant Kovykta gas field in eastern Siberia, which Russian authorities have long threatened to withdraw. [ID:nLDE62M1C6] (Editing by Anthony Barker)

© Thomson Reuters 2010. All rights reserved. Users may download and print extracts of content from this website for their own personal and non-commercial use only. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. Thomson Reuters and its logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of the Thomson Reuters group of companies around the world.

Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

UPDATE 1-Rosneft seeks Venezuelan assets in Germany-sources
| Reuters



Posted using ShareThis

Venezuela murder-rate quadrupled under Chavez

Venezuela murder-rate quadrupled under Chavez: NGO
Reuters
Thursday, March 11, 2010; 12:52 PM 

CARACAS (Reuters) - Homicides in Venezuela have quadrupled during President Hugo Chavez's 11 years in power, with two people murdered every hour, according to new figures from a non-governmental organization.
The Venezuelan Observatory of Violence (OVV), whose data is widely followed in the absence of official statistics, said the South American nation has one of the highest crime rates on the continent, with 54 homicides per 100,000 citizens in 2009.
That rate is only surpassed in Latin America by El Salvador where 70 in every 100,000 citizens were murdered last year, the OVV said, citing official statistics from that country.
Crime repeatedly comes first on Venezuelans' list of worries. It has also begun to drag on Chavez's traditionally high approval ratings as well as scare tourists who come to Venezuela.
"The problem is not so much the criminals, but rather the government's inaction and lack of policies," OVV director Roberto Briceno Leon told Reuters.
Chavez says he is doing his best to combat crime, which he blames on wealth inequalities caused by former governments.
He accuses foes of exaggerating the problem to foment fear, and has recently hiked pay for police officers, as well as launching a new national force.
The Interior Ministry, which last gave official crime statistics in 2004, declined comment on the OVV's new figures.
Briceno, a criminology professor at the Central University of Venezuela and at the Sorbonne in Paris, blamed a weak judicial system and ineffective and corrupt policing in Venezuela, where he said 91 percent of crimes go unsolved.
He collates his figures from police sources and media reports. When Chavez came to power in 1999 there were 4,550 homicides whereas in 2009 there were 16,047, the OVV said.
That means Venezuela experiences every month about as many deaths as occurred in the Gaza Strip during Israel's early 2009 offensive, Briceno said.
With a murder rate of 140 per 100,000 citizens, Venezuela's capital Caracas has the highest murder rate in South America, only exceeded in the hemisphere by Mexico's Ciudad Juarez.
Most of the deaths occur in crowded slums, but crime impinges on all sectors. In richer residential areas at night, cars shoot through red lights on often deserted streets and few people are willing to risk walking outside.
(Reporting by Eyanir Chinea; Writing by Charlie Devereux; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne)



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OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet (All, OPEC)

> United States ***
> **** ** ****** * Energy Information Administration *
> ** ** ** ** *************************************
> ****** ****** ** ** *************************************
> Based on projections from the EIA March 2010 Short-Term Energy Outlook
> (STEO), members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
> Countries
> (OPEC) could earn $767 billion of net oil export revenues in 2010 and
> $823 billion in 2011.
>
> http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/OPEC_Revenues/Factsheet.html
>
> Last year, OPEC earned $573 billion in net oil export revenues, a 41
> percent decrease from 2008. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of
> these earnings, $154 billion, representing 27 percent of total OPEC
> revenues. On a per-capita basis, OPEC net oil export earning reached
> $1,554 in 2009, a 42 percent decrease from 2008.

Oil-rich Venezuela keeps its citizens in rolling blackouts

Joel Brinkley

Saturday, February 27, 2010

Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's flamboyant president, now should be the object of pity. He has boxed himself in, trapped by his own hubris.

His country is falling apart. How, for example, did Venezuela find itself plagued with electricity shortages so severe that the government imposed blackouts nationwide for several hours each day? After all, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has among the world's largest oil and natural gas reserves.

It happens that a hydroelectric dam on the Caroní River generates almost three-quarters of the nation's electricity. But a drought has dropped the river's water level below what the hydroelectric generator needs to function at full power, setting off the blackouts and a water shortage. That prompted the Bolivarian president to issue an important decree. Venezuelans, he ordered, were no longer permitted to sing in the shower.

"No, folks, three minutes" in the shower "is more than enough. Three minutes is what I take, and I guarantee you I don't end up smelling bad."

The government called the electricity crisis an "act of Mother Nature." I call it an act of incompetence. This wasn't an earthquake, a hurricane or some other calamity that fell upon Venezuela with little notice. The water level had been dropping gradually for many months. Chavez and everyone else could see this crisis coming but did nothing effective to prepare.

Any other leader would have negotiated deals to buy electric generators - or purchased power from friendly neighbors. Oh, I forgot. Chavez doesn't have any friendly neighbors. Even so, both Colombia and Brazil did offer help. Their leaders are certainly hiding secret grins because their obnoxious neighbor now needs their assistance.

But that's where the hubris comes in. Earlier this month, Elias Jaua, Venezuela's vice president, refused Colombia's offer to help. Chavez froths at the mouth every time he is forced to mention his archenemy, Alvaro Uribe, the president of Colombia. (In Chavez's mind, Uribe ranks only slightly below his chief villain, the president of the United States.) So his acolyte vice president said he would rather wait for the rains to come again in the spring.

Last fall Chavez, too, was relying on the rains to save him - actually, to save his people. You can be sure there are no blackouts at the presidential palace. Chavez tried seeding the clouds with chemicals, trying to persuade them to disgorge some moisture.

"Any cloud that comes my way, I'll hurl a lightning bolt at it," his excellency the president declared. "Tonight I am going out to bombard." It didn't work.

With all that oil money, Chavez certainly could have built electric-generation plants that run on Venezuela's natural gas. But he has been using most of the cash to buy votes. Venezuela heavily subsidizes gasoline and electricity rates, causing profligate usage. A gallon of gasoline costs 12 cents - the lowest price in the world.

That helps explain why the nation's economy, like its electric grid, is on the verge of collapse. Inflation runs at 25 percent, the highest in Latin America, and the nation remains mired in a stubborn recession. Last month Chavez devalued the nation's currency, the bolivar, from 2.15 to the dollar up to 4.30. Suddenly his citizens' money was worth half of what it was the day before.

Part of the problem is that Chavez is, quite literally, running out of money. Venezuela's only export is oil, and production has been plummeting - by nearly 30 percent over the past decade. That's not because the nation is running out of crude. Far from it. Chavez fired the professionals who ran the oil business and put his cronies at their desks. Now the oil-production equipment is failing. The oil infrastructure, like the rest of the country, is falling apart. Chavez has run Venezuela's economy into the ground.

To fix the energy problem, he asked his friends in Cuba - another nation that is falling to pieces - to come over and help. But Cuba, too, has rolling blackouts. Only cut-rate oil imports from Venezuela keep its electricity grid alive.

Angry and frustrated students rallied this month to protest the inflation, the blackouts, water and food shortages, economic deprivation, the continent's highest crime rate and Chavez's dictatorial rule. Chavez sent police to fire water cannons and plastic bullets at the youths.

Is that a man worthy of pity? Well, at the very least he has a tin ear. As all of this went on, his press department churned out adoring news releases and assorted commentary, including one last week titled "Is the U.S. Economic Model a Failure?"

Joel Brinkley, a professor of journalism at Stanford University, is a former foreign correspondent for the New York Times. To comment, e-mail Brinkley@foreign-matters.com. Contact us via our online submissions form at sfgate.com/chronicle/submissions/#1.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/02/27/IN6F1C5V0J.DTL

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Will Chavez Keep his Word- MAURITANIA

† N∞ 613 07/10/2009 † † MAURITANIA † Will Chavez Keep his Word? †††††The Latin American-African summit meeting organized by the Vezuelan president Hugo Shavez resulted in a flurry of energy contracts, including one for a refinery in Mauritania. According to our sources, a government decision on Oct. 1 to modify the articles of association of Societe Mauritanienne des Industries de Raffinage (SOMIR) will enable Venezuelaís national oil company, PDVSA, to buy stakes in it. PDVSA could therefore modernize the refinery at Nouadhibou, which is owned by SOMIR but has never worked at more than 20% of its capacity. A memorandum of understanding to that effect was penned during the 2nd Latin America-Africa summit meeting at the end of September in Venezuela. Mauritanian president Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz and his oil minister, Ahmed Ould Moulaye Ahmed, were on hand for the occasion. The project that Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez has pushed on several occasions would result in the rehabilitation of the Nouadhibou refinery which would be supplied by Venezuelan crude. The resulting oil products (around 20,000 bpd) would be sufficient to supply the sub-region, including Mali and Niger whose leaders were also present in Caracas. The combined consumption of the three countries would, in theory , absorb all of the products. But the Venezuelan scheme could run into direct competition with the Zinder refinery in Niger on which work was kicked off by the China National Petroleum Corp late last year. Even if the Zinder refineryís economic profitability is far from certain given the absence of a local market, it was imposed by president Mamadou Tandja as a condition for CNPC being awarded the Agadem field. Chavez often pledges to invest in numerous African projects but all his promises have so far come to nothing. © Copyright 1982-2009 Indigo Publications. Reproduction and dissemination prohibited (photocopy, Intranet, web, etc.) without written permission of the editor.

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Aporte de Pdvsa al fisco se redujo 47% en primer semestre

La contribución en regalías, ISLR y otros tributos fue BsF 15,1 millardos

Los ingresos de la industria petrolera en la primera mitad del año estuvieron marcados por la caída en los precios del crudo, lo que limitó la capacidad de contribución al fisco.

Según datos que se manejan en el despacho de las finanzas públicas, en seis meses los pagos de Pdvsa en regalías, Impuesto sobre la Renta y otros tributos fueron 15,1 millardos de bolívares fuertes. Ese aporte refleja una disminución de 47%, en relación con el mismo período de 2008 cuando fue 28,7 millardos de bolívares fuertes.

Ese comportamiento de los ingresos petroleros obliga al Gobierno central a tener una mayor dependencia del aporte no petrolero, en especial de los pagos del Impuesto al Valor Agregado, del endeudamiento interno y de los recursos que genera la Tesorería Nacional.

Cumplimiento Ante la evolución de los precios del petróleo en el primer trimestre del año, las autoridades tuvieron que admitir los efectos de la crisis global y ello implicó un ajuste en el barril de referencia del presupuesto de 60 a 40 dólares y una reducción de la contribución petrolera de 77 millardos de bolívares fuertes a 37,8 millardos de bolívares fuertes.

Al cierre de junio, Pdvsa cumplió con 40,04% de la meta del año. Para el mismo período de 2008 la industria había entregado 56% de la contribución, aunque en ese lapso la cesta venezolana superaba los 90 dólares y actualmente tiene un promedio de 47 dólares.

En el detalle de los ingresos de la primera mitad de 2009 se tiene que las regalías sumaron 9,4 millardos de bolívares fuertes. De ese monto, 8 millardos de bolívares fuertes fueron pagos en efectivo y 1,3 millardos de bolívares fuertes en especies (entrega de barriles).

Con ese esquema de pago en barriles se atiende parte del convenio con China.

Adicionalmente a las regalías, la corporación aportó en Impuesto sobre la Renta 4,5 millardos de bolívares fuertes.

No obstante, la industria petrolera tiene pendiente la cancelación de parte del ISLR adicional del pasado año y según los estados financieros de la estatal, al término de 2008, esa obligación estaba en 2 millardos de dólares (más de 4 millardos de bolívares fuertes).

La contribución por los otros tributos como el de extracción y exportación fue 1,1 millardos de bolívares fuertes.

Dependencia La menor disponibilidad de recursos ha llevado a Pdvsa a solicitar créditos adicionales con el objeto de financiar parte de sus planes sociales.

El Gobierno central ha utilizado recursos de la Tesorería Nacional así como los dividendos de Cantv para cubrir esas operaciones extraordinarias de la industria petrolera, que ya ascienden a 138 millones de bolívares fuertes.

En otros ejercicios, la estatal se encargaba de financiar parte del crecimiento del gasto extrapresupuestario mediante sus ingresos adicionales, pero en esta oportunidad es ahora la corporación la que recibe créditos.

MARMAS@ELUNIVERSAL.COM